Prognostic model of in-hospital ischemic stroke mortality based on an electronic health record cohort in Indonesia

Abstract

Stroke patients rarely have satisfactory survival, which worsens further if comorbidities develop in such patients. Limited data availability from Southeast Asian countries, especially Indonesia, has impeded the disentanglement of post-stroke mortality determinants. This study aimed to investigate predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with ischemic stroke (IS). This retrospective observational study used IS medical records from the National Brain Centre Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia. A theoretically driven Cox’s regression and Fine-Gray models were established by controlling for age and sex to calculate the hazard ratio of each plausible risk factor for predicting in-hospital stroke mortality and addressing competing risks if they existed. This study finally included 3,278 patients with IS, 917 (28%) of whom had cardiovascular disease and 376 (11.5%) suffered renal disease. Bivariate exploratory analysis revealed lower blood levels of triglycerides, low density lipoprotein, and total cholesterol associated with in-hospital-stroke mortality. The average age of patients with post-stroke mortality was 64.06 ± 11.32 years, with a mean body mass index (BMI) of 23.77 kg/m2 and a median Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 12 and an IQR of 5. Cardiovascular disease was significantly associated with IS mortality risk. NIHSS score at admission (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00–1.07), male sex (HR = 1.51[1.01–2.26] and uric acid level (HR = 1.02 [1.00–1.03]) predicted survivability. Comorbidities, such as cardiovascular disease (HR = 2.16 [1.37–3.40], pneumonia (HR = 2.43 [1.42–4.15] and sepsis (HR = 2.07 [1.09–3.94, had higher hazards for post-stroke mortality. Contrarily, the factors contributing to a lower hazard of mortality were BMI (HR = 0.94 [0.89–0.99]) and GCS (HReye = 0.66 [0.48–0.89]. In summary, our study reported that male sex, NIHSS, uric acid level, cardiovascular diseases, pneumonia, sepsis. BMI, and GCS on admission were strong determinants of in-hospital mortality in patients with IS.