Unveiling the nexus between rural population aging, technical efficiency, and carbon emissions in Chinese agriculture

Abstract

Introduction According to the seventh national population census in China, the proportion of people aged 65 and above in the population reached 13.5%. The aging trend is more pronounced in rural areas, indicating that China has entered an aging society. This article focuses on agricultural carbon emissions in the context of aging, studying the impact of rural population aging on agricultural carbon emissions. Study objectives Under the background of deepening population aging, let us discuss how to maintain the green and sustainable development of agriculture in China. Methodology Fixed effects and mediating effects models are used. Technical efficiency is used as a mediating variable to discuss the relationship between rural population ageing, technical efficiency and agricultural carbon emissions. Results This paper adopts the classical carbon emission calculation theory of IPCC to measure agricultural carbon emissions from 2010 to 2019, and China’s plantation carbon emissions show an "inverted U-shaped" trend, reaching a high level in 2015 and then starting to decline. In addition, the fixed-effects benchmark regression found that the aging of the rural population promotes agricultural carbon emissions, and the technical efficiency of agriculture suppresses agricultural carbon emissions. Finally, the mediating effect model is applied to explore the relationship between the three. Using technical efficiency as the mediating variable, it is found that under the masking effect, rural population aging will weaken agricultural carbon emissions through technical efficiency, thus achieving the suppression of agricultural carbon emissions. Policy recommendation The formulation and modification of agricultural carbon-reducing policy row policies should take full account of the broader context of rural population ageing; increase the interconnectedness and interaction between rural population ageing and agricultural production technology, and actively play a positive role in promoting the efficiency of agricultural technology as a result of rural population ageing; and, in accordance with the actual situation of agricultural research, appropriately increase the strength of financial support for agriculture to improve agricultural technology and promote low-carbon development in agriculture.