Dynamic interactions of carbon trading, green certificate trading, and electricity markets: Insights from system dynamics modeling

Abstract

In the context of the evolving landscape of reduction in carbon emissions and integration of renewable energy, this study uses system dynamics (SD) modeling to explore the interconnected dynamics of carbon trading (CT), tradable green certificate (TGC) trading, and electricity markets. Using differential equations with time delays, the study provides a comprehensive analysis of structural relationships and feedback mechanisms within and between these markets. Key findings reveal the intricate interplay between carbon prices, green certificate prices, and electricity prices under various coupling mechanisms. For example, under the three-market coupling mechanism, carbon trading prices stabilize around 150 Yuan/ton, while green certificate prices reach a peak of 0.45 Yuan/KWH, impacting electricity prices, which fluctuate between 0.33 and 1.09 Yuan / KWH during the simulation period. These quantitative results shed light on nuanced fluctuations in market prices and the dynamics of anticipated purchases and sales volumes within each market. The insights gleaned from this study offer valuable implications for policy makers and market stakeholders in navigating the complexities of carbon emission reduction strategies, the integration of renewable energy and market equilibrium. By understanding the dynamics of multi-market coupling, stakeholders can better formulate policies and strategies to achieve sustainable energy transitions and mitigate impacts of climate change.