Multivariate mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression models with difference-in-differences estimator of the impact of WORTH Yetu on household hunger and socioeconomic status among OVC caregivers in Tanzania

Abstract

Background Although most of the livelihood programmes target women, those that involve women and men have been evaluated as though men and women were a single homogenous population, with a mere inclusion of gender as an explanatory variable. This study evaluated the impact of WORTH Yetu (an economic empowerment intervention to improve livelihood outcomes) on household hunger, and household socioeconomic status (SES) among caregivers (both women and men) of orphaned and vulnerable children (OVC) in Tanzania. The study hypothesized that women and men respond to livelihood interventions differently, hence a need for gender-disaggregated impact evaluation of such interventions. Methods This is a secondary analysis of longitudinal data, involving caregivers’ baseline (2016–2019) and follow-up (2019–2020) data from the USAID Kizazi Kipya project in 25 regions of Tanzania. Two dependent variables (ie, outcomes) were assessed; household hunger which was measured using the Household Hunger Scale (HHS), and Socioeconomic Status (SES) using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). WORTH Yetu, a livelihood intervention implemented by the USAID Kizazi Kipya project was the main independent variable whose impact on the two outcomes was evaluated using multivariate analysis with a multilevel mixed-effects, ordinal logistic regression model with difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator for impact estimation. Results The analysis was based on 497,293 observations from 249,655 caregivers of OVC at baseline, and 247,638 of them at the follow-up survey. In both surveys, 70% were women and 30% were men. Their mean age was 49.3 (±14.5) years at baseline and 52.7 (±14.8) years at the follow-up survey. Caregivers’ membership in WORTH Yetu was 10.1% at the follow-up. After adjusting for important confounders there was a significant decline in the severity of household hunger by 46.4% among WORTH Yetu members at the follow-up compared to the situation at the baseline (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) = 0.536, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) [0.521, 0.553]). The decline was 45.7% among women (aOR = 0.543 [0.524, 0.563]) and 47.5% among men (aOR = 0.525 [0.497, 0.556]). Regarding SES, WORTH Yetu members were 15.9% more likely to be in higher wealth quintiles at the follow-up compared to the situation at the baseline (aOR = 1.159 [1.128, 1.190]). This impact was 20.8% among women (aOR = 1.208 [1.170, 1.247]) and 4.6% among men (aOR = 1.046 [0.995, 1.101]). Conclusion WORTH Yetu was associated with a significant reduction in household hunger, and a significant increase in household SES among OVC caregivers in Tanzania within an average follow-up period of 1.6 years. The estimated impacts differed significantly by gender, suggesting that women and men responded to the WORTH Yetu intervention differently. This implied that the design, delivery, and evaluation of such programmes should happen in a gender responsive manner, recognising that women and men are not the same with respect to the programmes.