Determinants of carbon emission: A multiple scale decomposition of Gansu Province

Abstract

China, being the largest contributor to total carbon emissions, still has a long way to go in energy conservation and emission reduction. Employing the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method and using input-output table data, this study examines the evolution of carbon emissions resulting from energy consumption in Gansu Province in China over the period 2007 to 2017. By exploring carbon emission driving factors and identifying key final demand and sectors for carbon emissions, Gansu province can formulate more effective emission reduction policies that can balance economic development and carbon emission control. The key findings are as follows: 1) Regarding the driving factors, both the energy intensity effect and the demand sector structure effect emerge as the main contributors to emission reduction. Conversely, the total demand effect and the input-output structure effect predominantly led to emission increase. 2) In terms of each final demand, urban residents’ consumption, rural residents’ consumption and outflow represent the primary categories contributing to increased emissions. 3) The sectors experiencing the most significant decline in carbon emissions and carbon intensity are Electricity, Heat Production and Supply Industry, while Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry as well as Construction Industry are the primary contributors to increasing emissions. Consequently, to achieve the carbon neutrality goal, Gansu governments should consider all these factors and propose mitigation policies in light of the local realities.