Predictors of time to death among under-five children in pastoral regions of Ethiopia: A retrospective follow-up study

Abstract

Background In Ethiopia, the mortality rate for children under five is a public health concern. Regretfully, the problem is notably underestimated and underreported, making it impossible to fully recognize how serious the situation is in the nation’s developing regions. Unfortunately, no single study has been conducted to reveal the rates and predictor factors of under-five child death in Ethiopia’s pastoral regions. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the critical variables that led to a shorter survival time to death for children in Ethiopia’s pastoral regions under the age of five. Methods Between January 18 and June 27, 2016, a retrospective follow-up study was done among under-five children in pastoral areas of Ethiopia. The statistically significant difference between categorical predictors was shown using the log-rank test, and the Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to determine the survival time. In order to identify the time-to-death predictor factors in children under five, Cox proportional hazards (PH) model analyses of bivariable and multivariable variables were fitted. Results A total 7,677 children were included in the study. The overall incidence rate of under-five mortality was 8.4% (95% CI 7.77%, 9.0%). In the multivariable Cox PH model analysis, children vaccinated (AHR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.59, 0.88), mothers aged 35–40 (AHR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.52), and above 41 (AHR: 2.18, 95% CI: 1.59, 2.98), not initiating exclusively breastfeeding (AHR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.55), the agriculture sector of the mother’s occupation (AHR: 2.57, 95% CI: 1.74, 3.31), the male sex of the household head (AHR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.81), non-anemic child (AHR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.55, 0.83), and rural residence (AHR: 3.27, 95% CI: 1.45, 7.38) were identified as main predictors of time to death among under-five children. Conclusions In this study, the authors found a higher rate of under-five deaths than the national figure. A child vaccinated, exclusively breastfeeding, mother’s occupation, sex of household head, anemic child, mother’s age, and residence were found to be the most influential predictors for time-to-death. Therefore, to lower the high incidence of under-five mortality, the government should focus on the pastoral regional states of Ethiopia.