Prediction of heart failure patients with distinct left ventricular ejection fraction levels using circadian ECG features and machine learning

Abstract

Heart failure (HF) encompasses a diverse clinical spectrum, including instances of transient HF or HF with recovered ejection fraction, alongside persistent cases. This dynamic condition exhibits a growing prevalence and entails substantial healthcare expenditures, with anticipated escalation in the future. It is essential to classify HF patients into three groups based on their ejection fraction: reduced (HFrEF), mid-range (HFmEF), and preserved (HFpEF), such as for diagnosis, risk assessment, treatment choice, and the ongoing monitoring of heart failure. Nevertheless, obtaining a definitive prediction poses challenges, requiring the reliance on echocardiography. On the contrary, an electrocardiogram (ECG) provides a straightforward, quick, continuous assessment of the patient’s cardiac rhythm, serving as a cost-effective adjunct to echocardiography. In this research, we evaluate several machine learning (ML)-based classification models, such as K-nearest neighbors (KNN), neural networks (NN), support vector machines (SVM), and decision trees (TREE), to classify left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) for three categories of HF patients at hourly intervals, using 24-hour ECG recordings. Information from heterogeneous group of 303 heart failure patients, encompassing HFpEF, HFmEF, or HFrEF classes, was acquired from a multicenter dataset involving both American and Greek populations. Features extracted from ECG data were employed to train the aforementioned ML classification models, with the training occurring in one-hour intervals. To optimize the classification of LVEF levels in coronary artery disease (CAD) patients, a nested cross-validation approach was employed for hyperparameter tuning. HF patients were best classified using TREE and KNN models, with an overall accuracy of 91.2% and 90.9%, and average area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) of 0.98, and 0.99, respectively. Furthermore, according to the experimental findings, the time periods of midnight-1 am, 8–9 am, and 10–11 pm were the ones that contributed to the highest classification accuracy. The results pave the way for creating an automated screening system tailored for patients with CAD, utilizing optimal measurement timings aligned with their circadian cycles.