Abstract
During 2010–2012, extreme food insecurity and famine in Somalia were estimated to account for 256,000 deaths. Since 2014 Somalia has experienced recurrent below-average rainfall, with consecutive failed rains in late 2016 and 2017 leading to large-scale drought, displacement and epidemics. We wished to estimate mortality across Somalia from 2014 to 2018, and measure the excess death toll attributable to the 2017–2018 drought-triggered crisis. We used a statistical approach akin to small-area estimation, and relying solely on existing data. We identified and re-analysed 91 household surveys conducted at the district level and estimating the crude (CDR) and under 5 years death rate (U5DR) over retrospective periods of 3–4 months. We captured datasets of candidate predictors of mortality with availability by district and month. We also reconstructed population denominators by district-month combining alternative census estimates and displacement data. We combined these data inputs into predictive models to estimate CDR and U5DR and combined the predictions with population estimates to project death tolls. Excess mortality was estimated by constructing counterfactual no-crisis scenarios. Between 2013 and 2018, Somalia’s population increased from 12.0 to 13.5 million, and internally displaced people or returnees reached 20% of the population. We estimated an excess death toll of 44,700 in the most likely counterfactual scenario, and as high as 163,800 in a pessimistic scenario. By contrast to 2010–2012, excess deaths were widespread across Somalia, including central and northern regions. This analysis suggests that the 2017–2018 crisis had a lower, albeit still very substantial, mortality impact than its 2010–2012 predecessor. Despite modest elevations in death rate, crisis conditions were widespread and affected a population of millions. Humanitarian response to drought-related crises in Somalia needs to be strengthened, target the most vulnerable and emphasise very early interventions.
Funder
UK Research and Innovation
UK Department for International Development
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Reference32 articles.
1. Famine Early Warning Systems Network. Mortality among populations of southern and central Somalia affected by severe food insecurity and famine during 2010–2012;Food and Agriculture Organisation;Rome and Washington, DC: FAO and FEWS NET,2013
2. Famine Early Warning Systems Network. Technical release: Over one million people in Somalia face acute food insecurity as food crisis worsens;Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit—Somalia;Nairobi: FSNAU,2014
3. Somalia Food Security & Nutrition Analysis Post Deyr 2015/16 Technical Series Report No VII. 64;Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit—Somalia;Nairobi: FSNAU,2016
4. Somalia: Humanitarian Response Plan Revision;United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs;Mogadishu: UN OCHA,2017
5. A weak health response is increasing the risk of excess mortality as food crisis worsens in Somalia;A Seal;Confl Health,2017
Cited by
4 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献