Investigating variations of precipitation concentration in the transitional zone between Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateau in China: Implications for regional impacts of AO and WPSH

Abstract

Changes in precipitation patterns greatly impact regional drought/flood risk management and utilization of water resources. The main purpose of this paper was to investigate spatio-temporal variability of precipitation concentration in the transitional zone between Qinling Mountains (QDM), Guanzhong Plain (GZP) and the Loess Plateau (LPNS) in China, using monthly-scale precipitation concentration index (PCI) and daily-scale concentration index (CI) from daily rainfall records. The Mann-Kendall method was employed to illustrate the change in trend of PCI and CI, the Kriging interpolation method was adopted to measure spatial distribution, and the Wavelet transforms were used to explore their spatio-temporal correlation with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) & Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) for revealing the potential attribution of precipitation concentration variation. Also, the regional implication of CI was investigated in the zone to provide local knowledge of the index application. Results showed that annual precipitation demonstrated a north-south increasing layered spatial distribution in the zone, representing a generally decreasing trend. The CI change generally exhibited a more significant decreasing trend than did PCI in LPNS and GZP due to AO slowly increasing over time, with a spatially weak layered or radial north-south decay, and an insignificant increasing trend in QDM impacted by the enhancing WPSH, with an obvious layered or radial spatial distribution. The spatiotemporal pattern of PCI variation represented similar characteristics in attribution with CI, but an inverse spatial distribution due to the phase difference (positive and negative effects) of AO and WPSH influencing seasonal precipitation. Regional analysis of CI showed that the CI value with over 0.62 indicated that approximately 80% of precipitation was contributed by 25% of the rainiest days in this zone. Fortunately, the area with this high CI has been getting smaller, implying a positive trend toward regional flash flood and debris flow control.