Threshold analysis regarding the optimal tax rate and tax evasion. Empirical evidence from Taiwan

Abstract

For a long time, governments of all countries have attached great importance to the development of underground economic activities. The reason is that the characteristics of the underground economy are hidden and the information disclosure is not sufficient, which not only distorts the economic data indicators, but more importantly, the existence of the underground economy has led to the loss of a large amount of tax base, affecting the long-term economic development of the country. Whether raising the tax burden rate boosts the tax revenue or expand the scale of the underground economy. In this paper, we use Kuznet Tax Curve (KTC) method to analyze the relationship between GDP and TTR/DTR/ITR. We find that the tax base erosion rate of indirect tax is lower than that of direct tax. In addition, we explore the relationship among economic growth, tax rate and tax revenue and adopt SUR-OLS method and Threshold approach to estimate the response of economic growth on total tax revenue(TTR), direct tax revenue(DTR) and indirect tax revenue (ITR) in Taiwan from 1991-2020. Our empirical research shows that when DTR tax rates are between 12.59% and 13%, an increase in income leads to a decrease, not an increase, in DTR, leading to severe tax base erosion. That is, the relationship between GDP and DTR presents a N-shaped relationship. However, ITR does not exist any tax rate threshold effect. Obviously, with the increase of GDP, ITR also increases. This reflects that the difference of tax structure between direct tax and indirect tax plays a key role in the relationship between tax rate and tax base erosion.