Monitoring the elasticity of travel demand with respect to changes in the transport network for better policy decisions during disasters

Abstract

When a disaster occurs, disaster management goes through a number of phases, namely normal, emergency response, adaptation, and recovery. Being able to identify the transition between these phases would be useful for policymakers, for example, in order to shift their focus from meeting the travel needs of affected people during the emergency response phase, to meeting travel needs for adaptation and recovery activities. This study proposes a data-driven method which may be useful for assessing phase transitions for transport management during a disaster. Specifically, we argue that changes in elasticities of travel demand with respect to changes in the transport network can be a useful indicator of phase transition, since they depict changes in consumers’ tastes, i.e., changes in the degree of travel necessity during disaster. Two hypotheses are formulated to investigate the changes in elasticity during a disaster: 1) the elasticity of travel demand is more elastic soon after a disaster as travel becomes a luxury good, and 2) it becomes less elastic afterwards as travel goes back to being a necessity good. To empirically confirm the hypotheses, we develop a multilevel log-log linear model, where the transport network service level information varying over time during a disaster is used as an explanatory variable, and tested mobile phone location and transport network data captured during the heavy rain disaster in Japan in July 2018. We also utilized a change point detection algorithm to identify a structural change that occurred in these elasticities. We confirm that our empirical results support our hypotheses, i.e., in the affected areas, the elasticity was more elastic soon after the disaster, while the elasticity tended to go back to normal around one month later. These results suggest that the proposed method can be useful to judge the phase transition for disaster management.