Spillover effect analysis of home-purchase limit policy on housing prices in large and medium-sized cities: Evidence from China

Abstract

Home-purchase limit is a unique administrative housing policy of China and has non-negligible influences on the housing price. The objective of this study is to analyze the spillover effect of home-purchase limit policy on housing prices in 35 large and medium-sized cities. The panel data of these cities and the spatial Durbin model are employed in this study. The results indicate that the spillover effect of home-purchase limit policy is positive and significant in all of 35 cities. However, when we categorize these cities into high-risk, medium-risk, and low-risk based on housing price characteristics, the spillover effect of home-purchase limit policy is different. It is not significant in high-risk cities, is negatively significant in medium-risk cities, and is positively significant in low-risk cities. This paper suggests that local governments can pay more attention to the precise design and implementation of home-purchase limit policy, and maintain policy continuity to avoid further spillover fluctuations in housing prices.