Application of grey feed forward back propagation-neural network model based on wavelet denoising to predict the residual settlement of goafs

Abstract

To study the residual settlement of goaf’s law and prediction model, we investigated the Mentougou mining area in Beijing as an example. Using MATLAB software, the wavelet threshold denoising method was used to optimize measured data, and the grey model (GM) and feed forward back propagation neural network model (FFBPNN) were combined. A grey feed forward back propagation neural network (GM-FFBPNN) model based on wavelet denoising was proposed, the prediction accuracy of different models was calculated, and the prediction results were compared with original data. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the GM-FFBPNN was higher than that of the individual GM and FFBPNN models. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the combined model was 7.39%, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 49.01 mm, the scatter index (SI) was 0.06%, and the BIAS was 2.42%. The original monitoring data were applied to the combination model after wavelet denoising, and MAPE and RMSE were only 1.78% and 16.05 mm, respectively. Compared with the combined model before denoising, the prediction error was reduced by 5.61% and 32.96 mm. Thus, the combination model optimized by wavelet analysis had a high prediction accuracy, strong stability, and accorded with the law of change of measured data. The results of this study will contribute to the construction of future surface engineering in goafs and provide a new theoretical basis for similar settlement prediction engineering, which has strong popularization and application value.