Suicide rates during and after the first COVID-19 lockdown in Germany in 2020

Abstract

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and of measures implemented to curb the spread of the virus on suicidal behavior has been investigated in different regions of the world, but does not yet allow to draw conclusions for Germany. Especially lockdowns might have effects on suicide rates via impact on mental disorders, changes in the choice of suicide method, a decrease in help seeking behavior, or a deterioration in the quality of medical care for people with mental disorders. The following research questions were addressed: i) did suicide rates in Germany in 2020 change during lockdown and non-lockdown periods when compared to a ten-year baseline? ii) was there a change in the proportion of suicide methods during the lockdown compared to baseline? An interrupted time-series analysis based on a linear regression was used. For the comparisons of predicted and observed suicide rates, excess suicide mortality rates (ESMR) were chosen among others. Changes in the choice of method were analyzed by comparing the rates of different methods to those at baseline. Although the mean suicide rate in 2020 was not significantly different from baseline, the weekly analysis of suicide rates revealed a significant difference (χ2 = 64.16; df = 39; p = 0.007), with some weeks showing higher and others lower rates than previous years. The effects for separate weeks were attenuated to non-significance after correction for multiple testing. Suicide mortality during the first lockdown in 2020 was significantly lower than expected (ESMR = 0.933; 95% CI: 0.890; 0.985) whereas, in the post-lockdown period, the registered suicide mortality was not significantly different from the expected one (ESMR = 1.024; 95% CI: 0.997; 1.051). During lockdown, there was a significant increase of the percentage of the suicide method categories jumping and ‘other methods’ and a decrease of poisoning and lying in front of a moving object. Being able to determine whether the choice of more or less lethal methods during lockdown versus non-lockdown periods partly explains this finding would require a representative assessment of attempted suicides.