Analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of sustainable land use in China under the carbon emission trading scheme: A measurement idea based on the DID model

Abstract

Sustainable development is the theme of world economic development in the 21st century. As a key part of sustainable development, sustainable land use (SLU) encompasses economic development and environmentally friendly and social progress. In recent decades, China has formulated many environmental regulatory policies to achieve sustainable development and "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (double-carbon)" goals, among which the carbon emission trading scheme (CETS) is the most representative and provides valuable research. In this paper, we aimed to reflect the spatio-temporal evolution of SLU in China under the influence of environmental regulatory policies through an indicator measurement strategy based on the DID estimation method. The study conclusions are as follows: (1) The CETS can effectively improve SLU from the perspectives of economic development and environmentally friendly progress, and the impact has primarily been in the pilot areas. And, its effectiveness is closely linked to local locational factors. (2) With respect to the dimension of economic development, the CETS has not changed the provincial distribution patterns of SLU; rather, it continues to remain "high to low, east to west". However, regarding the environmentally friendly progress dimension, the CETS has significantly changed the provincial distribution patterns of SLU, which are characterized by spatial agglomeration with urban agglomerations such as the Pearl River Delta (PRD) and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) as the core. (3) The screening results of the SLU indicators based on economic development showed that the CETS primarily improved the innovation capacities of pilot regions, and the impacts on economic levels were relatively small. Similarly, the screening results of the SLU indicators based on environmentally friendly progress showed that the CETS had primarily acted on reducing pollution emission intensity and strengthening greening construction, revealing only short-term effects on improving energy use efficiency. Based on the above, this paper explored the meaning and role of the CETS in more detail, with a view to providing insight into the implementation and formulation of environmental regulation policies.