Risk assessment of debris flow disaster based on the cloud model—Probability fusion method

Abstract

This paper proposes a new debris flow risk assessment method based on the Monte Carlo Simulation and an Improved Cloud Model. The new method tests the consistency of coupling weights according to the characteristics of the Cloud Model firstly, so as to determine the weight boundary of each evaluation index. Considering the uncertain characteristics of weights, the Monte Carlo Simulation is used to converge the weights in a minimal fuzzy interval, then the final weight value of each evaluation index is obtained. Finally, a hierarchical comprehensive cloud is established by the Improving Cloud Model, which is used to input the comprehensive expectation composed of weights to obtain the risk level of debris flow. Through statistical analysis, this paper selects Debris flow scale (X1), Basin area (X2), Drainage density (X3), Basin relative relief (X4), Main channel length (X5), Maximum rainfall (X6) as evaluation indexes. A total of 20 debris flow gullies were selected as study cases (8 debris flow gullies as model test, 12 debris flow gullies in reservoir area as example study). The comparison of the final evaluation results with those of other methods shows that the method proposed in this paper is a more reliable evaluation method for debris flow prevention and control.