Dynamic evolution of urban infrastructure resilience and its spatial spillover effects: An empirical study from China

Abstract

Urban infrastructure resilience is an important perspective for measuring the development quality of resilient cities and an important way to measure the level of infrastructure development. This paper uses the kernel density estimation, exploratory spatial data analysis, and spatial econometric models to analyze the characteristics of dynamic evolution and the spillover effects of the infrastructure resilience levels in 283 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2010 to 2019. Our results are as follows. (1) The overall level of urban infrastructure resilience increased. The eastern region had a higher level than the national average. In contrast, the central, western and north-eastern regions had a slightly lower level than the national average. (2) The areas with high and higher resilience levels were mostly cities with more developed economic and social conditions in Eastern China. The areas below moderate resilience levels show a certain degree of clustering and mainly include some cities in Central, Western, and Northeast China. (3) The national level of urban infrastructure resilience shows significant spatial clustering characteristics, and the spatial pattern from coastal to inland regions presents a hotspot-subhotspot-subcoldspot-coldspot distribution. (4) There is a differential spatial spillover effect of national urban infrastructure resilience, which is gradually strengthened under the role of the economy, financial development, population agglomeration and government funding and weakened under the role of urbanization, market consumption and infrastructure investment. By exploring the dynamic evolution of infrastructure resilience in cities at the prefecture level and above and its spatial spillover effects, we provide a scientific basis for avoiding the siphoning effect among cities, improving the level of infrastructure resilience, and guiding the construction and development of resilient cities.