Space-environment relationship in the identification of potential areas of expansion of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Didelphis aurita in the Atlantic Rainforest

Abstract

Ecological Niche Modeling is widely used for animals, but rarely for understanding the parasite ecology.Trypanosoma cruziis a heterogeneous and widely dispersed multi-host parasite.Didelphis auritais a generalist species, both in terms of diet and environments. We modeled theD.auritaniche andT.cruziinfection in the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest, using the models of two common vector species (Triatoma vitticepsandPanstrongylus megistus) as biotic variables, predicting their occurrence. Records ofT.cruziinfected and non-infectedD.auritawere analyzed through climate and landscape approaches by the Ecoland method. Models for each triatomine species and infected and noninfectedD.auritawere produced considering climate and landscape: resolution of ~1km2selected by Pearson’s correlation [-0.7≤α≤0.7]. For modeling, seven algorithms available in ModleR package were used. True Skill Statistic was used to evaluate the models’ performance (≥ 0.7).T.vitticepsindicates that there is a spatial dependence with warm areas in the southeastern region whileP.megistuspresented a distribution with high environmental suitability concentrated in the Southeast. High values of climatic suitability, landscape and potential presence ofT.vitticepsandP.megistuswere considered necessary, but not sufficient for the presence ofD.auritainfected byT.cruzi. Climate models showed an ecological niche with suitability variations homogeneous, and landscape models showed a distribution of habitat conditions along the biome, with a fragmented profile and heterogeneous between locations. Ecoland demonstrated thatD.auritahas different degrees of impact on its role in the enzootic cycle in different locations of the Atlantic Rainforest. Associating the models with the Ecoland method allowed the recognition of areas whereD.auritaare importantT.cruzireservoirs. Areas of high suitability for the presence of marsupials are a necessary, but not sufficient forD.auritato act as a reservoir forT.cruzi.