Omicron vs. the rest: Assessing the competitive dynamics and coinfection scenarios of COVID-19 strains on a social network

Abstract

The rapid spread and evolving nature of COVID-19 variants have raised concerns regarding their competitive dynamics and coinfection scenarios. In this study, we assess the competitive interactions between the Omicron variant and other prominent variants (Alpha, Beta and Delta) on a social network, considering both single infection and coinfection states. Using the SIRS model, we simulate the progression of these variants and analyze their impact on infection rates, mortality and overall disease burden. Our findings demonstrate that the Alpha and Beta strains exhibit comparable contagion levels, with the Alpha strain displaying higher infection and mortality rates. Moreover, the Delta strain emerges as the most prevalent and virulent strain, surpassing the other variants. When introduced alongside the less virulent Omicron strain, the Delta strain results in higher infection and mortality rates. However, the Omicron strain’s dominance leads to an overall increase in disease statistics. Remarkably, our study highlights the efficacy of the Omicron variant in supplanting more virulent strains and its potential role in mitigating the spread of infectious diseases. The Omicron strain demonstrates a competitive advantage over the other variants, suggesting its potential to reduce the severity of the disease and alleviate the burden on healthcare systems. These findings underscore the importance of monitoring and understanding the dynamics of COVID-19 variants, as they can inform effective prevention and mitigation strategies, particularly with the emergence of variants that possess a relative advantage in controlling disease transmission.