Temporal trends in the disease burden of osteoarthritis from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030

Abstract

This study aimed to report trends in the global burden of osteoarthritis (OA) from 1990 to 2019 and predict the trends in the following years based on Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. The study included reporting on the prevalence and incidence rates, as well as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Additionally, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) and Estimated Annual Percent Change (EAPC) were analyzed along with related factors, finally, Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis were utilized to predict the trends in the upcoming years. In 2019, globally, there were about 414.7 million (95%UI: 368.8 to 464.4 million) OA incident cases, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) about 492.21 (95% UI:438.66 to 551.5) per 100000. And there were about 527.8 million (95% UI: 478.7 to 584.8 million) OA prevalent cases in 2019. The DALYs for OA increased to about 189.49 million (95%UI: 95.71 to 376.60 million) from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC:0.14%; 95%CI: 0.12% to 0.16%). There was a positive association between ASR and Socio-demographic index (SDI) both at the regional and national level. BAPC results showed that ASR in females would decrease but increase in males in the following years. In conclusion, the global burden of OA has risen steadily between 1990 and 2019, placing a significant strain on society. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years. To alleviate this burden, it is necessary to implement measures that target risk factors such as high body mass index.