LSTM based stock prediction using weighted and categorized financial news

Abstract

A significant correlation between financial news with stock market trends has been explored extensively. However, very little research has been conducted for stock prediction models that utilize news categories, weighted according to their relevance with the target stock. In this paper, we show that prediction accuracy can be enhanced by incorporating weighted news categories simultaneously into the prediction model. We suggest utilizing news categories associated with the structural hierarchy of the stock market: that is, news categories for the market, sector, and stock-related news. In this context, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based Weighted and Categorized News Stock prediction model (WCN-LSTM) is proposed. The model incorporates news categories with their learned weights simultaneously. To enhance the effectiveness, sophisticated features are integrated into WCN-LSTM. These include, hybrid input, lexicon-based sentiment analysis, and deep learning to impose sequential learning. Experiments have been performed for the case of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) using different sentiment dictionaries and time steps. Accuracy and F1-score are used to evaluate the prediction model. We have analyzed the WCN-LSTM results thoroughly and identified that WCN-LSTM performs better than the baseline model. Moreover, the sentiment lexicon HIV4 along with time steps 3 and 7, optimized the prediction accuracy. We have conducted statistical analysis to quantitatively assess our findings. A qualitative comparison of WCN-LSTM with existing prediction models is also presented to highlight its superiority and novelty over its counterparts.