Prospects for the development of the world economy in the context of a special military operation and sanctions pressure

Abstract

This article discusses the current situation in the world economy in the context of Russia’s special military operation. A forecast is given for the prospects for the development of the world economy in the near future, assuming a fall in world GDP, as well as the spread of secondary effects in the world through commodity markets, trade and financial channels.The object of research is the development of the world economy in the context of growing geopolitical uncertainty.The subject of the study is the tools for the development of the world economy in the context of geopolitical uncertainty. The authors come to the conclusion that the consequences of geopolitical tensions will be expressed in barriers to the recovery of the world economy after, including taking into account the COVID–19 pandemic. Reducing exports from Russia and Ukraine will lead to a round of global inflation. The decrease in production volumes occurs in all countries from which they exported their products to Russia and Ukraine. Additional tension arises due to new refugee flows and the further growth of Ukraine’s external debt into debt with no prospect of repayment. Forecasts of a global recession are becoming more and more real. The consequences of the sanctions will deal a devastating blow to the global economy as a whole. The main risk is global stagflation. The escalation of the conflict slows down economic development and destabilizes global financial markets. Vulnerable segments of the population, especially in developing countries, will be hardest hit. In this regard, we can state the risk of a humanitarian catastrophe and a huge number of refugees around the world.