Coupling of Cellular Automata Urban Growth Model and HEC-HMS to Predict Future Flood Extents in the Upper Klang Ampang Catchment

Abstract

Urban areas in tropical regions have higher flood risks due to the more frequent occurrence of intense convective rainfalls. The rising urbanization process have caused more surfaces to be covered with impervious materials, resulting in increased runoff. Modelling urban growth and its impact on urban hydrology is essential to ensure informed decision in the sustainable management and planning of cities in developing country like Malaysia. The aim of this research is to develop an integrated system for simulating future flood extents by coupling flood and urban growth models for the Upper Klang Ampang catchment which includes Kuala Lumpurcapital city. HEC-HMS was used for flood modelling while SLEUTH cellular automata model was employed to analyse urban growth in the catchment. The results indicate that using historical satellite images from 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2016 as input data layers alongwith slope, land use, hill shade, road and restricted area layers, a slight increase in urban growth from 2020 until 2050 is predicted which can cause the peak discharge to increase by about 11-15%. The integrated flood estimation-urban growth system can be used as an effective tool in urban planning and management for the city.