VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION ANALYSIS BETWEEN EXPORT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND JOB OPPORTUNITY IN BANGKA BELITUNG ISLANDS PROVINCE

Abstract

Purpose of the study: The economic performance of Bangka Belitung Islands province has increased during the period of 2007-2016. This is marked by the increasing growth rate of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) measured at the constant price of 68 percent. These performance improvements should be accompanied by efforts to create job opportunities (for instance, by increasing exports) to boost the economic growth. The objective of the study was to examine and analyze the causality relationship between job opportunities, exports, and economic growth in the Bangka Belitung Islands province. Methodology: This research used secondary data with Vector Auto Regression (VAR) analysis tool. Main Findings: The test results indicated that job opportunities and exports are affected by job opportunity in the previous year (t-1). Furthermore, the results of the study show that in comparison to exports, job opportunity contributes more towards the economic growth. Implications: This study implies that government may provide non-export oriented job opportunities in the province of Bangka Belitung Islands.