Prediction of the number of potential applicants of Russian universities in the current demographic conditions in the country in order to update the problems of reputational management

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of a number of statistical indicators (population by age group, data on natural population movement (Fertility, mortality), the number of marriages and divorces, as well as the number of students in higher education institutions, the rates of admission of students to higher and secondary vocational education institutions, the official forecast of the Federal Service of State Statistics of the Russian Federation of the population of the country aged 18 years for 2020–2035) In order to predict the potential number of applicants of Russian universities and to determine the prospects for their development in the near future. The result of the analysis carried out by the author is an attempt to make a forecast of the number of applicants in higher education institutions of our country for 2020–2035, which shows that even if it is pessimistic, the dynamics of the possible number of applicants in the next sixteen years is positive and quite encouraging. In addition, the author of the article justifies the mechanisms of university management based on the formation and management of the reputation of higher educational institutions. Among them: development and implementation of the quality management system of the university; Improvement of professional competence of management and faculty of the university; Development of the system of vocational guidance, employment and adaptation of university graduates; Building in the student environment the values, needs and abilities of self-realization of the individual. The implementation of the proposed reputational management mechanisms should help universities to increase their competitiveness, advance in Russian and world ratings, that is, to solve the problems facing them through effective reputation management.