Affiliation:
1. a National Institute of Urban Infrastructure Planning, University of Engineering and Technology, Peshawar 25000, Pakistan
2. b Department of Civil Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Peshawar (Bannu Campus), Bannu 28100, Pakistan
Abstract
Abstract
This study investigates changes in river flow patterns, in the Hunza Basin, Pakistan, attributed to climate change. Given the anticipated rise in extreme weather events, accurate streamflow predictions are increasingly vital. We assess three machine learning (ML) models – artificial neural network (ANN), recurrent neural network (RNN), and adaptive fuzzy neural inference system (ANFIS) – for streamflow prediction under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), specifically SSP245 and SSP585. Four key performance indicators, mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R2), guide the evaluation. These models employ monthly precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures as inputs, and discharge as the output, spanning 1985–2014. The ANN model with a 3-10-1 architecture outperforms RNN and ANFIS, displaying lower MSE, RMSE, MAE, and higher R2 values for both training (MSE = 20417, RMSE = 142, MAE = 71, R2 = 0.94) and testing (MSE = 9348, RMSE = 96, MAE = 108, R2 = 0.92) datasets. Subsequently, the superior ANN model predicts streamflow up to 2100 using SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. These results underscore the potential of ANN models for robust futuristic streamflow estimation, offering valuable insights for water resource management and planning.
Subject
Water Science and Technology,Environmental Engineering
Cited by
1 articles.
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