Prediction of groundwater trends for irrigation in Northern Bangladesh

Abstract

Abstract Groundwater trends affect the domestic, agricultural, and industrial prospects of a region. The study area is Bogura, a northern region of Bangladesh, located on the Pleistocene terrace of the Bengal Basin. The aquifer consists of medium-to-coarse sand, located at a depth of 4.66–42.68 m; groundwater is scarce during dry seasons. The water table (WT) time-series data for 2007–2019 were used for forecasting and characterizing present and future groundwater conditions using existing numerical simulations. The annual groundwater budget for discharge and storage was 2,772 and 2,442 Mm3, respectively. Thus, the annual scarcity of groundwater was 330.4 Mm3 (13.5%), excluding the surface water contribution of 10 Mm3 (0.4%). The present spacing of deep tube wells (DTWs) and shallow tube wells (STWs) was 744 and 372 m, respectively. Currently, the DTW spacing ranged 744–800 m; however, the STW spacing of 250–372 m is higher than the set distance. Hence, further installations of STWs were strictly disallowed for irrigation. WT declined by 1.0 m in the last 13 years, i.e., 0.07 m or 1.2% decline rate per annum, causing water scarcity in the region during the peak period in the dry season (June–February), thus affecting irrigation and limiting agricultural production.