Impact of projected climate variability on agricultural water demand of key crops in drought-prone central India region

Abstract

ABSTRACT Water scarcity predominantly affects agriculture production. It is mandatory to save future water against its shortage due to variations in climate. Variation in climate is a significant factor responsible for frequent droughts over the Bundelkhand region in central India. It is necessary to obtain early warning studies in this region to manage and arrange future agricultural water. Out of the best regional climate models (RCMs) under the coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX) and their driving coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5), general circulation models (GCMs) for India, the most effective model has been found based on the observed multiscale data for the region. The daily projected data (2021–2100) of the best GCM, earth system model, ESM-2M has been used to evaluate the future water requirements for major Rabi and hot weather crops grown in the region. The climate change effect is seen in the majority, especially in the upper Bundelkhand part, with a lack of water availability seen in future periods. Most of the crops needed more water than the present condition, especially from 2071 to 2100. The findings will also help researchers and policymakers to utilize the future projected data to propose suitable water management strategies for agriculture.