Projection of mean and extreme precipitation and air temperature over India: a CMIP6 analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study used 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to analyze the mean and extreme projection precipitation during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) season, i.e., June to September (JJAS). A continuous rise in precipitation and its associated unpredictability were predicted by global climate models using the CMIP6. The extreme values are estimated on the basis of generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Four socioeconomic paths are used as SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 to understand the impact of low-emission to high-emission scenarios. In all the scenarios, it is seen that all the models predict a significant rise in JJAS mean and extreme precipitation. Moreover, a strong correlation is obtained between the historical (1995–2014) and near-emission future simulation (2021–2040), mid-emission future simulation (2041–2060), high-emission future simulations (2081–2100) of air temperature and precipitation. In extreme emission scenarios, ensemble mean of CMIP6 models shows an increasing amplitude in surface air temperature and precipitation over India in the near future (2021–2040), mid future (2041–2060) and the end of the century (2081–2100). The CMIP6 simulations mainly support the results of all models, but they also demonstrate improved robustness across models.