Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall and streamflow in the Alto Paranapanema Basin, Brazil

Author:

Hucke André Teixeira da Silva1ORCID,Menegaz Mateus Nardini2,Isidoro Jorge Manuel Guieiro Pereira34ORCID,Tiezzi Rafael de Oliveira125ORCID

Affiliation:

1. a Postgraduate Program in Environmental Science and Engineering, Federal University of Alfenas, Rodovia José Aurélio Vilela, 11999 (BR 267 Km 533), Cidade Universitária, Poços de Caldas, MG CEP 37715-400, Brazil

2. b Postgraduate Program in Environmental Science, Federal University of Alfenas, Rua Gabriel Monteiro da Silva, 700, Centro – Alfenas, MG, CEP: 37130-001 CEP 37715-400, Brazil

3. c Department of Civil Engineering, Institute of Engineering, University of Algarve, Campus da Penha, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal

4. d MARE – Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre/ARNET – Aquatic Research NETwork, Rua da Matemática, 49, 3004-517 Coimbra, Portugal

5. e Nature Center Science, University Federal of São Carlos, Campus Lagoa do Sino, Lauri Simões de Barros Road, km 12 – SP-189, Aracaçu, Buri, SP, Brazil

Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate change has the potential to fundamentally transform landscapes on global scale. Leveraging advanced predictive modeling to enhance water resource management within the Alto Paranapanema Basin (Brazil), holds the potential to proactively anticipate challenges and alleviate the impacts and conflicts arising from this phenomenon. This is particularly important in a region boasting over 1,600 centerpivot irrigation systems. This study employs the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure, a physical model, to simulate long-term climate datasets and flows. Future climate scenarios, rooted in the Representative Concentration Pathways, are developed through the downscaling of Global Climate Models. The findings reveal a temporal shift in rainfall patterns, characterized by a reduction during the wet season of up to 40% compared to the average historical rainfall, and an increase throughout the dry season up to 40% compared to the same historical, estimated by the Eta -BESM model. These changes present challenges regarding to water availability, hydroelectric generation, and agricultural. By fostering collaboration among different governmental entities responsible for the managements of basins and harnessing the potential of predictive models, this research advocates for the adoption of proactive strategies in management of water resources. These strategies are imperative to effectively counteract the far-reaching effects of climate change.

Funder

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais

Publisher

IWA Publishing

Reference27 articles.

1. Boletim PIB do Agronegócio SãoPaulo -2020;Barros;Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada (CEPEA),2021

2. CBH-Alpa. SigRH 2023 Available from: https://sigrh.sp.gov.br/cbhalpa/apresentacao. (accessed in July of 2023).

3. Assessment of Climate Change over South America under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Downscaling Scenarios

4. Evaluation of the Eta Simulations Nested in Three Global Climate Models

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