Change and coincidence risk analysis of floods in the Mahanadi River Basin, India

Abstract

ABSTRACT Coincidence flood risk due to the simultaneous flood occurrences on both mainstream and its tributary results in downstream inundation of a confluence. Therefore, this study was taken up for coincidence flood risk analysis of Mahanadi River basin considering the annual maximum (AM) and the peak over threshold (POT) series. In this study, the Mann–Kendall trend test was performed to analyze the trend in flood magnitudes, while circular statistics was used to analyze the persistence in flood timing. The joint distributions between the streams were established using bivariate copula functions considering flood magnitudes and occurrence dates as variables. The results of MK test revealed a mixture of significant and insignificant trends for AM series for the selected stations, while the trends were insignificant for POT series. Additionally, the flood occurrence dates showed a high level of persistence. It is evident from the results that the coincidence risk is high for Seorinarayan–Bamnidhi confluence point with a risk value of 7.63 × 10−3. The coincidence risk increases mostly from late July to mid-September, and the coincidence risk is high for more frequently occurring flood events. The obtained results will help in prioritizing flood hazard zones for effective flood mitigation strategies in Mahanadi River basin.