Exploring climate change impacts on streamflow and hydropower potential: insights from a CMIP6 multi-GCM analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT The generation of hydropower is profoundly influenced by shifts in streamflow patterns induced by climate change. This research examines changes in streamflow and the potential surge in hydropower generation over a span of 35 years (2015–2050) at the Bhakra Dam site within the Upper Sutlej River Basin. Employing a deep learning methodology, particularly the long short-term memory (LSTM) model, in conjunction with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 6 multi-global climate model (GCM), facilitates a thorough analysis of these dynamics. Six out of 14 bias-corrected statistically downscaled datasets (0.25° × 0.25° grid resolution) from CMIP6 multi-GCM were selected based on entropy and combined compromise solution techniques. These selected CMIP6 multi-GCM datasets were utilized in the LSTM model to assess streamflows and project potential increases in hydropower at the Bhakra dam site under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios, specifically SSP245 and SSP585. The results indicate a maximum increase of approximately 15 and 17% in mean monthly streamflow under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively. Moreover, dependability flows calculated at Q50, Q75, and Q90 show respective rises of 13, 16, and 17% under SSP245 and 21, 17, and 18% under SSP585. The projected hydropower potential exhibits an increase of up to 15.9 and 17.3% under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively.