Comprehensive analysis of the impacts of climate and land use changes on flood damage (Case study: AqQala, Iran)

Abstract

ABSTRACT Population growth, community development, and waste generation impact climate, land use, water resources, and urban heat island effect. This research assesses the impacts of climate and land use changes on flood damage for different return periods (RPs) in AqQala area, Iran. Climate change anticipation is conducted using the CMCC-ESM2 model under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126, 370, and 585 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment report (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – CMIP6). The LARS-WG model is used to downscale climatic information, and land use mapping is processed through Landsat satellite images in ENVI 5.3. The Markov chain method is implemented for 2050 and 2080 via TerrSet. Hydrographs and inundation maps are generated by the Autodesk Storm and Sanitary Analysis (SSA) and Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) models. Results show an increase in average annual precipitation (up to 46%) and temperatures (up to 3.39 °C) under different SSP scenarios until 2080. The result indicates that land use changes are more significant than climate change. Peak flood discharge and damages could escalate by 38 and 29%, respectively, in the worst-case scenario. Eco-friendly design and implementation are crucial for improving the situation.