Modeling impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow, nitrate, and ammonium in the Kor River, southwest of Iran

Author:

Vaighan Amir Asadi1,Talebbeydokhti Nasser1,Bavani Alireza Massah2,Whitehead Paul3

Affiliation:

1. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Shiraz University, Zand Street, Shiraz, Fars, Iran

2. Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, College of Abouraihan, University of Tehran, Pakdasht, Iran

3. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK

Abstract

Abstract This study examined the separate and combined impacts of future changes in climate and land use on streamflow, nitrate and ammonium in the Kor River Basin, southwest of Iran, using the representative concentration pathway 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Different land use and climate change scenarios were used and the streamflow, nitrate and ammonium in the future period (2020–2049) under these scenarios were simulated by Integrated Catchment Model for Nitrogen (INCA–N). Results indicated that climate change will increase streamflows and decrease nitrate and ammonium concentrations in summer and autumn. Land use changes were found to have a little impact on streamflows but a significant impact on water quality, particularly under an urban development scenario. Under combined scenarios, larger seasonal changes in streamflows and mixed changes of nitrate and ammonium concentrations were predicted.

Publisher

IWA Publishing

Subject

Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law,Atmospheric Science,Water Science and Technology,Global and Planetary Change

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