Real-time flood stage forecasting by Variable Parameter Muskingum Stage hydrograph routing method

Abstract

The application of a Variable Parameter Muskingum Stage (VPMS) hydrograph routing method for real-time flood forecasting at a river gauging site is demonstrated in this study. The forecast error is estimated using a two-parameter linear autoregressive model with its parameters updated at every routing time interval of 30 minutes at which the stage observations are made. This hydrometric data-based forecast model is applied for forecasting floods at the downstream end of a 15 km reach of the Tiber River in Central Italy. The study reveals that the proposed approach is able to provide reliable forecast of flood estimate for different lead times subject to a maximum lead time nearly equal to the travel time of the flood wave within the selected routing reach. Moreover, a comparative study of the VPMS method for real-time forecasting and the simple stage forecasting model (STAFOM), currently in operation as the Flood Forecasting and Warning System in the Upper-Middle Tiber River basin of Italy, demonstrates the capability of the VPMS model for its field use.