Emergency operation rules for water-supply reservoirs under uncertainty and risk in dry seasons

Abstract

Abstract A better understanding of the forecast uncertainties and risks resulting from potential droughts and sudden water pollution is important in reservoir operations. In this study, we formulated water supply uncertainties and then evaluated risks related to droughts and sudden water pollution. A case study was then performed with the Danjiangkou Reservoir and emergency operation rules were proposed for water supply in dry seasons through the trial and error method. The results show that the reservoir inflow and water pollution location have a significant effect on emergency operations for water supply. However, insufficient reservoir inflow can make the situation worse, resulting in a reduction or even cessation of water supply and consequently enormous economic losses. The water supply problem could be alleviated to some extent with the increase of distance between the pollution location and the reservoir release gate. The proposed emergency operation rules considering forecast uncertainties and risks resulting from potential droughts and sudden water pollution may provide important insights into reservoir water supply in dry seasons.