Model fusion approach for monthly reservoir inflow forecasting

Abstract

Considering the complexity of reservoir systems, a model fusion approach is proposed in this paper. According to different inflow information represented, the historical monthly data can be constructed as two time series, namely, yearly-scale series and monthly-scale series. Even grey model (EGM) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) are adopted for the forecasts at the two scales, respectively. Grey relational analysis (GRA) is subsequently used as a scale-normalized model fusion tool to integrate the two scales' results. The proposed method is evaluated using the data of the Three Gorges reservoir ranging from January 2000 to December 2012. The forecast performances of the individual-scale models are improved substantially by the suggested method. For comparison, two peer models, back-propagation neural network and autoregressive integrated moving average model, are also involved. The results show that, having combined together the small-sample forecast ability of the EGM in the yearly-scale, the nonlinearity of the ANFIS in the monthly-scale, and the grey fusion capability of the GRA, the present approach is more accurate for holistic evaluation than those models in terms of mean absolute percentage error, normalized root-mean-square error, and correlation coefficient criteria, and also for peak inflow forecasting in accordance with peak percent threshold statistics.