Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios

Abstract

Abstract Climate change has caused many changes in hydrologic processes and climatic conditions globally, while extreme events are likely to occur more frequently at a global scale with continued warming. Given the importance of general circulation models (GCMs) as an essential tool for climate studies at global/regional scales, together with the wide range of GCMs available, selecting appropriate models is of great importance. In this study, six synoptic weather stations were selected as representative of different climatic zones over Iran. Utilizing monthly data for 20 years (1981–2000), the outputs of 25 GCMs for surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation were evaluated for the historical period. The root-mean-square error and skill score were chosen to evaluate the performance of GCMs in capturing observed seasonal climate. Finally, the outputs of selected GCMs for the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCPs), namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, were downscaled using the change factor method for each station for the period 2046–2065. Results indicate that SAT in all months is likely to increase for each region, while for precipitation, large uncertainties emerge, despite the selection of climate models that best capture the observed seasonal cycle. These results highlight the importance of selecting a representative ensemble of GCMs for assessing future hydro-climatic changes for Iran.