The dynamic nexus between climate changes, agricultural sustainability and food-water poverty in a panel of selected MENA countries

Abstract

Abstract This study attempts to examine the dynamic relationships between climate changes, agricultural sustainability and food-water poverty in a panel of MENA countries over the period 1990–2016. A panel co-integration, pooled least squares regression, pooled fixed effects, and pooled random effects models with the Hausman test for model specification are used to relate three proxies for food poverty and two proxies for water poverty to standard weather variables, agriculture productivity indicators, and environmental sustainability variables. The main results of regression analysis indicate that out of the three food poverty models, two food poverty regressions indicate the low agricultural productivity in low- and middle-income countries, while water poverty in terms of access to improved water is found to increase substantially agricultural value added (coefficient is more elastic, i.e. more than the unity). The results further show that high precipitation and temperature, often accompanied by high CO2 emissions, increase food poverty in terms of food deficit and prevalence of undernourishment, whilst having no significant effect on water poverty. The overall findings conclude that there is a substantial requirement to increase agricultural sustainability in low- and middle-income MENA countries without deteriorating environment and water reserves.