Evaluation of climate change impacts on streamflow to a multiple reservoir system using a data-based mechanistic model

Abstract

Recent investigations have demonstrated scientists' consensus on the increase in global mean temperature and climate variability. These changes alter the hydro-climatic condition of regions. Investigation of surface water changes is an important issue in water resources planning as well as for the operation of reservoirs. In this study a data-based mechanistic (DBM) model has been used for daily streamflow simulation. This model is a data-driven statistical base simulation model that can take advantage of additional climate variables with time variable configurations. The model has been developed for simulation of streamflow to three reservoirs, located in central Iran, using the daily rainfall, temperature and streamflow data. Comparison of the DBM results with the autoregressive integrated moving average model, as an alternative model, shows its higher performance. To include climate change impacts in study, an artificial neural network-based statistical downscaling model is developed for rainfall and temperature downscaling. The downscaled temperature and rainfall data under climate change scenarios based on HadCM3 general circulation model outputs are used to evaluate the climate change impacts on streamflow for the 2000–2050 time horizon. The results demonstrate the considerable impact of climate change on streamflow variability with significantly different behaviour in the three adjacent basins.