Climate change related increase of storminess near Hel Peninsula, Gulf of Gdańsk, Poland

Abstract

The paper deals with the growing threat of erosion to the south Baltic coast, caused by the intensification of a wind-induced wave climate and sea level rise, which is expected to continue until 2100 as a result of climate change. In the analysis, a deep-water wave prognostic point is located about 13 km north-east of the Hel Peninsula, situated in the NW part of the Gulf of Gdańsk. The study comprises the analyses of wind velocity, storm surge, wave height, wave set-up and wave run-up. A significant predicted increase in wave heights during extreme storms, compared with the wave climate reconstructed for 1958–2001, combined with anticipated higher storm surges, is expected to result in a lower resilience of the sea shore to erosion and flooding. Although nourishment operations conducted along the open sea shore of the Hel Peninsula have proved efficient and successful, nourishment needs will have to be adequately recalculated in future to ensure sufficient protection of this coastal segment.