Modelling the hydrological impacts of rural land use change

Author:

McIntyre Neil12,Ballard Caroline3,Bruen Michael4,Bulygina Nataliya1,Buytaert Wouter15,Cluckie Ian6,Dunn Sarah7,Ehret Uwe8,Ewen John9,Gelfan Alexander10,Hess Tim11,Hughes Denis12,Jackson Bethanna13,Kjeldsen Thomas R.14,Merz Ralf15,Park Jong-Sook6,O'Connell Enda9,O'Donnell Greg9,Oudin Ludovic16,Todini Ezio17,Wagener Thorsten18,Wheater Howard19

Affiliation:

1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College, London SW7 2AZ, UK

2. Centre for Water in the Minerals Industry, Sustainable Minerals Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia

3. Aqualinc Research Ltd, 11 Deans Avenue, Christchurch 8011, New Zealand

4. School of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, Newstead Building, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland

5. Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College, London SW7 2AZ, UK

6. College of Engineering, Swansea University, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK

7. The James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, UK

8. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Kaiserstraße 12, 76131, Germany

9. School of Civil Engineering & Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK

10. Institute for Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow 119333, Russia

11. Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Cranfield MK43 0AL, UK

12. Institute for Water Research, Rhodes University, 6140 Grahamstown, South Africa

13. School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand

14. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK

15. UFZ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Catchment Hydrology, D-06120 Halle, Germany

16. University of Paris 6, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UMR Sisyphe 7619, F-75252 Paris, France

17. Department of Earth and Geoenvironmental Science, University of Bologna, I-40126 Bologna, Italy

18. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA and Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TR, UK

19. Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, National Hydrology Research Centre, Saskatoon SK S7N 3H5, Canada

Abstract

The potential role of rural land use in mitigating flood risk and protecting water supplies continues to be of great interest to regulators and planners. The ability of hydrologists to quantify the impact of rural land use change on the water cycle is however limited and we are not able to provide consistently reliable evidence to support planning and policy decisions. This shortcoming stems mainly from lack of data, but also from lack of modelling methods and tools. Numerous research projects over the last few years have been attempting to address the underlying challenges. This paper describes these challenges, significant areas of progress and modelling innovations, and proposes priorities for further research. The paper is organised into five inter-related subtopics: (1) evidence-based modelling; (2) upscaling to maximise the use of process knowledge and physics-based models; (3) representing hydrological connectivity in models; (4) uncertainty analysis; and (5) integrated catchment modelling for ecosystem service management. It is concluded that there is room for further advances in hydrological data analysis, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methods and modelling frameworks, but progress will also depend on continuing and strengthened commitment to long-term monitoring and inter-disciplinarity in defining and delivering land use impacts research.

Publisher

IWA Publishing

Subject

Water Science and Technology

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