Predictive or Explanatory Models for Aquatic Ecosystems

Abstract

This paper presents the modelling of a small eutrophic lake of the French Alps. A mechanistic non-linear model is elaborated; this model has to be simplified in view of its identifiability study, and parameters estimates are obtained by non-linear optimization techniques. The Computer-Aided-Design package known as I.S.E.R. has been used to develop linear models describing the phytoplankton or zooplankton data. These models prove useful to understand some system properties and are really efficient for short-term forecasting.