The Random Transport of Oil by Sea Ice

Abstract

The transport of oil spilled upon the wintertime Arctic Ocean is modelled. As the motion of this oil is almost wholly due to its advection by sea ice, it is sufficient to study the motion of individual ice floes. The observational basis for our understanding of sea ice motion comes from the trajectories of such individual floes. In this study we envision an ensemble of independent trajectories emanating from a potential site of spilled oil. This ensemble is modelled by a Markov process and is formulated in terms of the observed motion. Statistics of the modelled ensemble address the probability that an oil spill will be transported to an arbitrary region, perhaps an environmentally sensitive one. Results are shown for potential spills at Prudhoe Bay and Peard Bay.