Assessment of the community vulnerability to extreme spring floods: the case of the Amga River, central Yakutia, Siberia

Abstract

Abstract Spring floods in Siberia annually affect local communities. Major urban settlements in the region implemented flood control structures, so rural areas take a heavy beating. In 2018, spring floods severely hit multiple communities in central Yakutia, exposing deficient flood prevention and risk management practices. Notably, Amga village, an important local center, was severely inundated. Hydrological analysis shows that the 2018 flood had a 50-yr return period, and was caused by an ice jam in a nearby channel bend where mid-channel sand bars impede ice movement during breakup. The cold spells of late April and early May in the middle section of the river promote ice-jam development, causing extreme water stage rise. Highest water stage is unrelated to either winter snow water equivalent or early May rainfall. Estimated tangible direct damage to the Amga community equals 5.1B ($81.5M) in 2018 prices, but only 0.13B ($2.1M), or 2.5% of this total, was reclaimed. A questionnaire survey revealed that most residents report important deterioration of drinking water quality and health after flooding. Residents respond positively to risk mitigation actions, implemented by the local and regional authorities, except ice dusting and cutting, and report minor activity of official sources in spreading information on flood progress.