Evaluation of water ecological security in Huaihe River Basin based on the DPSIR-EES-SMI-P model

Abstract

Abstract Scientific evaluation of water ecological security has essential theoretical and practical values for protecting and restoring the Huaihe River aquatic ecosystem. Based on the DPSIR-EES model, the water ecological security index (WESI) system of 16 cities in the Anhui section and Shandong section of the Huaihe River Basin was constructed. The ‘single index quantification-multi-index comprehensive-multi-criteria integration’ (SMI-P) evaluation method was used to calculate the WESI of the study area from 2011 to 2020. The spatial autocorrelation model and Markov chain were used to study the spatial distribution characteristics of water ecological security level and the probability of evolution over time. The results show that: (1) The overall WESI of the Huaihe River Basin has increased year by year, but the water ecological security level has been in the early warning (III) stage. Response level and environmental level are the main constraints. (2) During the study period, the spatial distribution of WESI in the Huaihe River Basin was high in the north and south ends and low in the middle. The degree of spatial agglomeration gradually changed from positive correlation to negative correlation. (3) The transfer of water ecological security level has ‘path dependence’ and, ‘self-locking’.