Daily runoff prediction using the linear and non-linear models

Abstract

Runoff prediction, as a nonlinear and complex process, is essential for designing canals, water management and planning, flood control and predicting soil erosion. There are a number of techniques for runoff prediction based on the hydro-meteorological and geomorphological variables. In recent years, several soft computing techniques have been developed to predict runoff. There are some challenging issues in runoff modeling including the selection of appropriate inputs and determination of the optimum length of training and testing data sets. In this study, the gamma test (GT), forward selection and factor analysis were used to determine the best input combination. In addition, GT was applied to determine the optimum length of training and testing data sets. Results showed the input combination based on the GT method with five variables has better performance than other combinations. For modeling, among four techniques: artificial neural networks, local linear regression, an adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system and support vector machine (SVM), results indicated the performance of the SVM model is better than other techniques for runoff prediction in the Amameh watershed.