Capability of logistic regression in identifying flood-susceptible areas in a small watershed

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Earth is currently experiencing severe economic and social consequences as a result of frequent floods. This study is crucial for effective risk management and mitigation, protecting lives and property from potential flood damage in the Deme watershed. This study endeavors to assess the efficacy of a logistic regression model in generating a flood susceptibility map for the Deme watershed in Ethiopia. Fourteen factors contributing to flooding were considered, including digital elevation model, slope, aspect, profile curvature, plane curvature, Topographic Position Index (TPI), Topographic Roughness Index (TRI), flow direction, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), distance to the river, rainfall, land use/land cover (LULC), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and soil type. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve method was employed to validate the model. The area under the curve (AUC) values for the model were determined to be 81% for the training dataset and 82% for the validation dataset, indicating its effectiveness in delineating flood-prone areas. The findings revealed that 18% of the watershed is very highly susceptible to flooding, 19% exhibits high susceptibility, 18% shows moderate susceptibility, while 20 and 24% have low and very low susceptibility, respectively. This research provides insights into comprehensive flood prevention and urban development strategies.