Statistical elements of predicting the impact of a variety of odour sources

Abstract

Two key elements in predicting odour response are the estimation of peak (few seconds) ground-level concentrations and the evaluation of the likelihood of a consequent adverse response. Peak rather than ensemble-average concentrations are not easily predicted by current dispersion models. The required peak-to-mean ratios depend on source characteristics, downwind distance and atmospheric stability. Using recent wind-tunnel simulations for four types of sources and two atmospheric stabilities and various measures of intermittency and non-stationarity, different regimes of behaviour are resolvable. A set of peak-to-mean ratios for a specified probability of exceedance is recommended and their practicality discussed.