Water conservation capacity under climate and land use change scenarios in Changbai Mountain, China

Abstract

Abstract Regional water conservation is the key to maintain water supply. Based on the data of 2000, 2010 and 2020, this paper takes Jingyu County in the Changbai Mountain as the study area. By land use conversion matrix, geostatistical analysis, InVEST model and scenario analysis, this paper aims to find out the variation of water conservation and the its related influencing factors in Changbai Mountain region. From 2000 to 2020, forest and cultivated land decreased, while grassland and developed land increased. The water conservation increased from 2.94 × 108 m3 to 4.83 × 108 m3, with a total increase of 64.29%. Forest has the highest average water conservation, followed by grassland, cultivated land and developed land. Climatic factors were important to 91.92% of the study area, whereas 6.22% of it was influenced by land use. When forest decrease in some areas, the main control factor of 48.71% of the area shifted into land use, that could lead to a sharp decrease in water conservation. Climate determines the overall spatial pattern of water conservation; land use determines the local characteristics by controlling runoff. The increase of water conservation is beneficial to improve the reserves and development potential of mineral water.